June 2026
WELCOME
Welcome to The Crazy Plan where our mission is to show that anyone can create unimaginable wealth.
Each month, we publish a blog providing readers with the financial education needed to set out on their own journey to a bright financial future. We do this by following two plans, our Monthly Plan saves £50 a month for 10 years and our Lumpsum Plan starts with a one-off £10,000. Our aim is to turn each plan into $1 billion in one or two generations.
At first, making $1 billion seems crazy but once you realise it’s a journey then things change. We’ll save our first £50 and from there our wealth will build to $1,000, then $5,000, then $10,000 and then $50,000. One day, if we’re patient, we’ll have $100,000 and then we’ll be looking at $1 million. From there it will be onwards to our $1 billion goal. This journey of small steps is how what seems impossible becomes possible.
You can dig-in to our posts however you like or if you are completely new to investing, you may want to start with “1.0 Liftoff!” and go through them in order which is how we build the education. We hope to provide you with the knowledge needed to set out on your own journey to a bright financial future if you choose. You can also visit the “About” page on our website to learn more about our plan.
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ON WITH THE PLAN
Our Lumpsum Plan will be worth $1billion in: 76yrs 1mth
Our Monthly Plan will be worth $1billion in: 86yrs 1mth
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Last month we continued to look at how to pick a single fund, focusing on the chart of Spike, Step and Slope which showed that return is only part of the story. To be successful we need to find funds that have a high likelihood that we’ll make money going forwards and that led us to consider four metrics of historic performance. These are: CAGR; Consistency of CAGR, Drawdown; and Length of Drawdown and because we calculated them to be comparable across funds, they are extremely powerful.
This month we’re going to revisit these four core-metrics again. We were going to start to look at building a Watchlist this month but having spoken with a couple of people who have been following us from the beginning, they feel it’s worth going over our core-metrics again. A thorough understanding is essential as we’re putting our hard-earned money into these funds and so this is when investing gets real. First though, let’s take a quick look at the world of sport for some motivation.
INVESTING LESSONS FROM SPORT
Often when investing you go nowhere or even backwards, like this month where later on you’ll see we made absolutely no money and the FX rate moved against us. Investing is full of these periods and we’ll spend most of our time in drawdown and feeling like we’re going nowhere. All the while, inflation will slowly eat away at our spending power and it can be easy to think we’ll never be wealthy and to quit. Therefore, it’s extremely important to keep focused on our goal and for us, that goal is $1 billion.
Sport is a great place to look for motivation and this month is no exception. Lionel Messi is in his 6th world cup and he’s scored 8 goals so far and all at the age of 39, a quite simply remarkable achievement. We’ve also seen Lewis Hamilton win the Barcelona-Catalunya Grand Prix at the age of 41 after a wait of 686 days since his last win. Then we have Novak Djokovic who is back on the tennis court at Wimbledon at the age of 39 and has reached the semi-final and Serena Williams, who was on court again at the age of 44.
The lesson to learn from all of these long careers, without doubt, is commitment. We said right back in post “1.2 Sacrifice, Temptation & Commitment” that without commitment we will fail and the above sports stars are the perfect example of what can be achieved if you’re committed. Any one of them could have retired many years ago but they didn’t, they kept on pushing themselves, remaining committed to being the best they can be in their chosen sport.
Building a bright financial future is no different. If we want to succeed, we have to be committed and must work hard on our research from week to week. If we do, in years to come, people will say how “lucky” we are to have such a bright financial future and how we must be “talented” at investing. Just like sport, our “luck” and “talent” will be the result of our hard work so if you sometimes struggle with our posts (let’s face it, they’re not exactly exciting are they!) whatever you do, don’t quit. Get your head down, remain committed and remember that no successful sports star ever succeeded by quitting.
A SINGLE FUND – SMT & THE BIG PICTURE
This month we’re going to walk through our four core-metrics for a single fund again and we’ve chosen to use Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust PLC to do this or SMT for short. We’ll calculate our metrics over a 10-year time-series which just means we’ll look back at all the past share prices for the last 10 years. So, how has SMT done?
10 years ago was July 2016 and the first thing you can see is that we’ve plotted what would have happened to £1 if we’d invested 10 years ago rather than plotting share prices, so the chart starts at 1. This means we can easily see how much we would have been worth at any point without having to get out the calculator. So, around July 2018 for example, we would have doubled our money as the chart hits 2 on the scale. Also, note that the chart is for Capital only, it does not include any dividends and so if we included these we would have done better.
The second point is that we’ve plotted the chart on a log-scale. In post “2.7 Stock Market Returns: Long Term CAGR” talked about how a log-scale shows percentage moves. 10% of 275p is 27.5p but 10% of 1,470.5p is 147.05p, the return is the same at 10% so the fund isn’t any better, it’s just that the share price is higher. A log-scale converts moves to percentages and you can see this on the left-hand scale where the increments double so the scale is 1 to 2 to 4 to 8 but the space between them is constant.
Picking up from last month is SMT a Spike, Step or Slope investment? It looks like a Slope with a rather nasty Spike in the middle that ruins things so let’s look at our four core-metrics.
METRIC #1 – CAGR
We call this metric “CAGR” which stands for Compound Annual Growth Rate.
This metric answers the question of whether we would have made money over the entire 10 years which without stating the obvious is extremely important! For SMT, the share price went from 275p on 01-Jul-2016 to 1,470.50p on 30-Jun-2026 which means £1 would have grown to £5.35 (£1 * 1,470.50 / 275). If you remember, the CAGR is the return needed every single year, for 10 years, to turn £1 into £5.35 and this turns out to be 18.25%. A quick check:
- £1 * (1+18.25%) * (1+18.25%) * (1+18.25%) * (1+18.25%) * (1+18.25%) * (1+18.25%) * (1+18.25%) * (1+18.25%) * (1+18.25%) * (1+18.25%) = £5.35.
Is 18.25% good? It certainly sounds good as remember, the S&P500 has historically returned 10% a year so 18.25% sounds incredible but we don’t really know until we compare with other funds. What if the S&P500 returned 20% over the same 10 years?
METRIC #2 – CONSISTENCY OF CAGR
We call this metric “WTRN.CAGR” which stands for Worst Return CAGR and we use the 5 worst returns.
When we looked at Spike, Step and Slope we saw that return alone is not enough to allow us to decide if a fund is a possible investment. In addition to CAGR we want to get an idea of the consistency of returns and to do that we’ll calculate the worst 5 annual returns over the 10-year period. The table below shows each of the 10 annual returns for SMT in the “1Y Return” column and we flag the worst 5:
| Year | Date | Share.Price | 1Y Return | Worst 5 | £ @ Yr Start | £ @ Yr End |
| 0 | Fri 01-Jul-16 | 275.00 | ||||
| 1 | Thu 29-Jun-17 | 401.50 | 46.0% | 1.0000 | 1.4600 | |
| 2 | Mon 02-Jul-18 | 528.00 | 31.5% | Y | 1.4600 | 1.9200 |
| 3 | Mon 01-Jul-19 | 545.50 | 3.3% | Y | 1.9200 | 1.9836 |
| 4 | Tue 30-Jun-20 | 820.00 | 50.3% | 1.9836 | 2.9818 | |
| 5 | Wed 30-Jun-21 | 1,331.00 | 62.3% | 2.9818 | 4.8400 | |
| 6 | Thu 30-Jun-22 | 715.40 | (46.3%) | Y | 4.8400 | 2.6015 |
| 7 | Tue 04-Jul-23 | 668.60 | (6.5%) | Y | 2.6015 | 2.4313 |
| 8 | Tue 02-Jul-24 | 890.00 | 33.1% | 2.4313 | 3.2364 | |
| 9 | Tue 01-Jul-25 | 1,026.00 | 15.3% | Y | 3.2364 | 3.7309 |
| 10 | Tue 30-Jun-26 | 1,470.50 | 43.3% | 3.7309 | 5.3473 |
We can see that the annual returns are incredibly volatile and this is why in the real-world Spike, Step and Slope don’t normally exist. Remember, we can’t average returns as returns compound so let’s compound them and then calculate the CAGR. Compounding tells us what £1 would be worth if we had earned the 5 worst returns so:
- £1 * (1+31.5%) * (1+3.3%) * (1 – 46.3%) * (1 – 6.5%) * (1+15.3%) = £0.79
So, if we had only invested in the worst 5 years, we would have lost money as £1 would have become worth only £0.79 which works out as a CAGR of (4.7%), so a negative return. Again, we have no idea if this is good or bad except it doesn’t feel too great and it shows up on the chart where we spend several years not making any money.
METRIC #3 – DRAWDOWNS
We call this metric “DD.Avg” which stands for Drawdown Average and we use the 5 biggest Drawdowns.
All things being equal, we’d prefer to own a fund that has smaller drawdowns if the return is the same. We looked at what a Drawdown is in post “2.8 Stock Market Volatility: Drawdowns” and so have a look at that post again if you need a refresher. Remember, a Drawdown is how much money you’ve lost from your peak wealth as a percentage of that peak wealth. If the maximum our investments were ever worth was £5 and they are now worth only £4.50 then we’ve lost (£0.50) which is a 10% drawdown from our peak wealth ((£0.50) loss / £5). So, what do the 5 biggest drawdowns look like for SMT over the 10 years?
| Number | End of DD | DD |
| 1 | Mon 01-Jun-26 | 60.3% |
| 2 | Tue 28-Apr-20 | 28.9% |
| 3 | Tue 21-Sep-21 | 28.1% |
| 4 | Wed 31-Jul-19 | 22.3% |
| 5 | Thu 19-Dec-19 | 17.0% |
| Average | 31.3% |
Ouch, these are some pretty large drawdowns but again, until we compare to other funds it’s hard to know if this is good or bad and maybe they’re the price to pay for the 18.25% CAGR over the 10 years. Looking at post “2.8” again quickly, we can see in the table of 150 years of S&P500 drawdowns that a Drawdown of 60.3% is right up there in the all-time highs so it certainly doesn’t look great.
METRIC #4 – LENGTH OF DRAWDOWN
We call this metric “DDT.Avg” which stands for Drawdown Time Average and we use the 5 longest Drawdowns.
This is our fourth and final core-metric and it’s the length of drawdowns measured in business days which are weekdays excluding holidays. This gives us an idea of how long we have to wait until we make a new peak in our wealth when we suffer a Drawdown so what does it look like for SMT?
| Number | End of DD | DDT |
| 1 | Mon 01-Jun-26 | 1,149 |
| 2 | Wed 31-Jul-19 | 230 |
| 3 | Tue 21-Sep-21 | 151 |
| 4 | Thu 19-Dec-19 | 99 |
| 5 | Tue 10-Jan-17 | 49 |
| Average | 336 |
The longest Drawdown we would have had to suffer if we’d bought SMT 10 years ago is a massive 1,149 business days which is just over 4.5 years. We can clearly see this on the chart and this was also the biggest Drawdown of 60.3% which has only just ended in June of this year. If we had invested just before this drawdown we would have had over 4 lost-years until we just broke even, let alone made any money. This is one of the reasons for diversifying and owning more than one fund, to spread our risk. Is the above metric any good? Again, without comparing to other funds it’s hard to say.
CONCLUSION: WOULD YOU INVEST IN SMT?
So the question is, have you started your Watchlist or are you waiting for us to do it in a post?! So far, we have the funds in The Crazy Fund research portfolio in our Watchlist and we calculated our four core-metrics for these last month. Then there are a couple of other funds we can add as remember, we used to have IEM in our portfolio and a couple of years ago we had MTE.
Looking at SMT in isolation, it’s extremely hard to answer the question of whether we should invest or not but with a Watchlist, things start to become clearer. Over the coming posts we will build a Watchlist and will update our core-metrics for the funds on it when we perform our portfolio review every 3 months. As you find funds, even if you don’t initially calculate any metrics for them, just add them to your Watchlist then take your time going through the funds doing research.
THE INVESTMENT REPORT
For an explanation of The Investment Report and The Crazy Fund please see our post “1.1 The Deep End”
| Tue 30-Jun-26 | Monthly Plan | Lumpsum Plan |
| Cash last month £ | 255 | 0 |
| Cash Saved £ | 50 | 0 |
| Unit buys / sells £ | 0 | 0 |
| Total Cash £ | 305 | 0 |
| Units last month | 930 | 10,000 |
| Units bought / sold | 0 | 0 |
| Total Units owned | 930 | 10,000 |
| Unit Price £ | 1.8157 | 1.8157 |
| Fund Value £ | 1,689 | 18,157 |
| Total Wealth £ | 1,994 | 18,157 |
| FX Rate | 1.3252 | 1.3252 |
| Total Wealth $ | 2,642 | 24,062 |
| Estimated CAGR | 15.00% | 15.00% |
| Years to $1billion | 86yrs 1mths | 76yrs 1mths |
We’ve now saved up for 6 months on the monthly plan and will be buying units in The Crazy Fund research portfolio at the beginning of July with our cash which is our £50 a month for 6 months plus the interest we received earlier this year from our bank on our savings.
This is again, a big moment, as it turns us from savers into investors and it’s by investing that we’re aiming to beat inflation and grow our wealth. In post “1.8 Investing Small Amounts & Correlation” we went over how it’s possible to invest small amounts of money by thinking outside the box using correlation if some investments are too expensive for us to buy with our £300 and so revisit this post if you need to.
THE CRAZY FUND
| Results | 29-May-26 | 30-Jun-26 | MTD Move | YTD Move | LTD Move |
| Unit Price £ | 1.8160 | 1.8157 | (0.02%) | 23.95% | 81.57% |
| FX Rate | 1.3453 | 1.3252 | (1.50%) | (1.63%) | 4.16% |
| Unit Price $ | 2.4431 | 2.4062 | (1.52%) | 21.94% | 89.12% |
| CAGR £ | 28.10% | 26.99% | (1.11%) | 5.97% | 26.99% |
Our investments went nowhere this month but as you can see from the chart, it was a volatile month. The FX rate to see how much we’re worth in USD moved against us by (1.5%) which will have slightly increased the time it will take us to reach our goal as we will have to make more money on our investments to make up this (1.5%) loss.
Below is a table of what the fund is invested in at 30/June:
| Ticker | % Fund | Price | CCY | Type | Description |
| LON:CSP1 | 9.0% | 60,715.00 | GBP | ETF | iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS (Acc) GBP Hedged |
| LON:JAM | 9.0% | 1,224.00 | GBP | IT | JP Morgan American Investment Trust PLC |
| LON:EQQQ | 9.6% | 55,557.00 | GBP | ETF | Invesco NASDAQ 100 UCITS GBP Hedged |
| LON:IITU | 9.8% | 3,753.00 | GBP | ETF | iShares S&P 500 Information Technology |
| LON:XDWT | 10.1% | 141.77 | USD | ETF | Xtrackers MSCI World Information Technology UCITS |
| LON:ATT | 10.9% | 752.00 | GBP | IT | Allianz Technology Trust PLC |
| LON:PCT | 12.5% | 713.00 | GBP | IT | Polar Capital Technology Trust PLC |
| LON:SMT | 10.0% | 1,470.50 | GBP | IT | Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust PLC |
| LON:OCI | 8.9% | 478.00 | GBP | IT | Oakley Capital Investments Limited |
| LON:XDEM | 10.1% | 7,870.00 | GBP | ETF | DB X-Trackers MSCI World Momentum Factor UCITS |
| Shares | 99.9% | ||||
| Cash | 0.1% |
Dividends added to our cash balance this month were:
- EQQQ went ex-Div on 11/Jun and paid on 25/Jun
- SMT went ex-Div on 11/Jun and will pay on 10/Jul
Otherwise, there were no changes to the portfolio during the month.
A FAVOUR
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NEXT MONTH
Next month is time for our quarterly portfolio review again. We’re also going to introduce a Watchlist for the first time now we have a good understanding of our four metrics for finding a potential investment. This will allow us to keep track of possible investments to add to our portfolio.
DISCLAIMER
Please note that by the time this blog is published, we may no longer own some or any of the investments discussed. Strategies and investments discussed might be totally unsuitable for you and we are not recommending them to you, they should only be considered as ideas for further research. You must read and agree to our Terms & Conditions, including the Disclaimer, which can be found on the T&C page of our website: https://thecrazyplan.com
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